Penguins vs. Capitals Prediction & Picks - Oct. 7

Washington Capitals v Pittsburgh Penguins — Photo: Justin Berl / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images

The Washington Capitals (1-1) take on the Pittsburgh Penguins (2-1) at Capital One Arena on Wednesday, Oct. 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT. The Capitals were defeated by the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-1 in their most recent game, while the Penguins are coming off a 3-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets.

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Here's our pick for who will clinch the victory in Wednesday's matchup.

Penguins vs. Capitals Predictions for Wednesday

Our computer projection model for this matchup predicts a final score of Capitals 4, Penguins 3.

Moneyline Pick: Capitals (-166)
Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
Spread Pick: Penguins (+1.5)

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Capitals Splits and Trends

The Capitals had a 43-30-9 record overall, with a 6-9-15 record in games that went to overtime, last season.
Washington picked up 25 points (11-8-3) in the 22 games it played that were decided by one goal.
In the 10 games last season the Capitals scored just one goal, they finished 1-9-0 (two points).
Washington took 16 points from the 20 games last season when it scored exactly two goals (5-9-6 record).
The Capitals scored three or more goals 49 times, and went 37-9-3 in those games (to record 77 points).
In the 27 games when Washington scored a single power-play goal, it picked up 32 points by finishing 15-10-2.
When it outshot its opponent, Washington was 21-13-3 (45 points).
The Capitals' opponent had more shots in 39 games last season. The Capitals went 20-14-5 in those matchups (45 points).

Penguins Splits and Trends

The Penguins put up a record of 7-17-24 in overtime games last season as part of an overall mark of 41-25-16.
In the 25 games Pittsburgh played that were decided by one goal, it picked up 27 points.
In eight games last season when the Penguins ended up with just one goal, they picked up three points (0-5-3).
Pittsburgh accumulated four points (0-9-4) when scoring two goals last season.
The Penguins scored three or more goals in 60 games, earning 95 points from those contests.
Pittsburgh scored a lone power-play goal in 30 games last season and recorded 37 points.
When outshooting its opponent last season, Pittsburgh was 22-16-10 (54 points).
The Penguins were outshot by their opponents in 35 games last season, going 16-12-7 to record 39 points.

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Team Stats Comparison (2025-26)

Capitals Rank	Capitals AVG		Penguins AVG	Penguins Rank
15th	3.18	Goals Scored	3.54	3rd
7th	2.90	Goals Allowed	3.15	24th
17th	27.9	Shots	28.4	10th
19th	28.1	Shots Allowed	27.3	12th
25th	17.84%	Power Play %	24.14%	7th
14th	80.16%	Penalty Kill %	81.43%	7th

Penguins vs. Capitals Game Time and TV Channel

When: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: TNT
Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
Where: Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.